Winless Southern Brave host Birmingham Phoenix with their season already on the line

Southern Brave will walk out at the Rose Bowl on Thursday night with Marcus Stoinis, David Miller, Tristan Stubbs, Jamie Smith, Jofra Archer and Adil Rashid in their squad, and with zero points on the board. Three matches, three defeats, bottom of the Hundred. Birmingham Phoenix arrive at 11pm India time for the 13th match of the competition, and both sides need it more than the table makes obvious.

Three defeats, and none of them a thrashing

Brave have not been outclassed so much as repeatedly caught short. Welsh Fire chased down 136 with two balls to spare in the opener at Southampton on 22 July. At Leeds three days later, Sunrisers made 187 for 5 and Brave got to 182 for 5, five runs adrift. Then MI London needed the full 100 balls to overhaul 130, winning by three wickets off the last ball on 27 July.

Losing three games by six wickets with two balls left, five runs, and three wickets off the final delivery is a particular kind of misery. It also means their net run rate is only minus 0.201, better than Phoenix’s, so a win on Thursday would not just be worth four points.

The batting keeps folding

The pattern is in the totals. Brave managed 135 for 7 against Fire and 129 for 9 against MI London, and only the 182 at Leeds looked like a competitive score from a line-up this deep. Chris Jordan is captaining a squad that also carries Tom Abell, Michael Pepper and three teenagers in Thomas Rew, Caleb Falconer and the 17-year-old Manny Lumsden.

There is one name in it Indian readers may want to follow. Nikhil Chaudhary, the legspinning allrounder in the Brave squad, was born in Delhi in 1996 and played 14 matches for Punjab between 2017 and 2019 before a 2020 trip to visit an uncle in Queensland turned into a stay when Australia closed its borders. He now plays for Tasmania and Hobart Hurricanes, and in June he was called into an Australia T20I squad for the first time, as cover for Travis Head, who had been granted personal leave.

Archer is the one Brave will want firing. Retained for 400,000 pounds, his most eye-catching contribution so far was 0 for 47 from 20 balls against Sunrisers Leeds, which is not the return that fee was meant to buy. Brave’s bowling has conceded 455 runs in three innings; their batting has made 446.

Phoenix are a different sort of unreliable

Birmingham Phoenix have played only two matches and sit seventh on four points, but their two performances could hardly be less alike. They opened with 214 for 4 at Edgbaston on 24 July, Joe Clarke hitting 68 from 33 balls with seven fours and four sixes, and held on to beat Trent Rockets by 10 runs. Two days later at Manchester they were bowled out for 100 chasing 188 and lost by 87.

That second result is why their net run rate reads minus 1.925, comfortably the worst in the competition. Phoenix have a game in hand on almost everyone, which is an advantage, but it also means one more bad afternoon and the run rate becomes very hard to repair.

What is actually at stake

Every side plays eight group games and only three reach the knockouts, with second meeting third in the Eliminator on 14 August and the winner going to Lord’s for the final on 16 August. Five teams are already level on eight points. Brave have five matches left counting Thursday’s, so even winning all of them may not be enough if the group above them keeps banking wins, and losing this one would end the argument early.

Phoenix’s position is more forgiving on points and less forgiving on margins. They can afford to lose at Southampton. They cannot afford to lose it badly.

The women’s match between the same two teams starts first at the Rose Bowl, at 7.30pm India time, with the men following at 11pm.

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