Why France already look like the team to beat at World Cup 2026
Germany are already home and Brazil needed a scare to survive. France, meanwhile, have strolled into the last 16 with Mbappe level with Messi’s tournament tally. On this evidence they are the side everyone else should fear.
Jul 2, 2026
Two and a bit weeks into an expanded World Cup that was supposed to be a slog for the big teams, one side has made the whole thing look straightforward. France brushed Sweden aside 3-0 in the last 32, Kylian Mbappe helped himself to two more goals, and they reached the round of 16 without ever needing a second gear. If you are ranking the survivors by how convincing they have looked, it is hard to put anyone above them.
This is opinion, so let me be plain about it: France are the team I would least want to draw right now. Not for one result, but for how little they have had to spend to get this far.
Mbappe is in the mood
The captain is the obvious place to start. His brace against Sweden took Mbappe level with Lionel Messi on six goals at this tournament and set a new record for goals in World Cup knockout matches, and he managed it on a night where he barely raised his pulse. A France team whose talisman is this sharp in the knockouts is a different, nastier proposition than the version that can drift when he goes quiet. When your best player is also your most in-form, the rest of the draw has a problem.
This is not a one-man team
The lazy read on France is that they live and die by Mbappe. The evidence so far says otherwise. Ousmane Dembele tore Norway apart with a first-half hat-trick in the 4-1 win that sealed top spot in the group, and the goals have come from across the front line rather than one boot. That spread is the difference between a side that can survive a quiet night from its star, or an injury, or a suspension, and one that falls apart without him. France look like they have options everyone else would envy.
The favourites around them are wobbling
Context makes France look better still. Germany, one of the pre-tournament picks, are already home after losing a penalty shootout to Paraguay in the last 32. Brazil had to come from behind and needed a Gabriel Martinelli goal deep into stoppage time to edge a fearless Japan and dodge a genuine shock. The 48-team format was sold as an easy ride for the elite, and instead it has been picking them off one by one. France are the exception, quietly doing the job while the others sweat.
None of this guarantees a thing, and I would not pretend otherwise. Knockout football is cruel, one flat night against a well-drilled opponent ends everything, and France have not yet been dragged into the sort of scrap that tests a team’s nerve rather than its talent. The real examination arrives when they meet someone who can genuinely hurt them, most likely deeper in the last 16 or the quarter-finals.
Still the ones to catch
For now, the eye test and the scoreline point the same way. France have the in-form star of the tournament, a squad deep enough to cope when things go wrong, and a habit of winning without fuss. Plenty can still unravel between here and the final on July 19. But if you asked me to name the team everyone else is chasing, I would not hesitate.