Paraguay’s giant-killers run into France in the World Cup last 16

Paraguay have already produced the shock of this World Cup. To make it two, they will have to solve the team that looks least like slipping up. France meet Gustavo Alfaro’s side in the last 16 in Philadelphia, and the gap between the two on paper could hardly be wider. What Paraguay have shown so far is that paper counts for very little once the knockout rounds start biting.

Paraguay arrive as the tie’s wildcard

Germany went into their round-of-32 meeting with Paraguay as one of the favourites and walked out of it eliminated. The four-time champions could not break down a Paraguay side that defended for its life, drew 1-1 after Julio Enciso had put them ahead, and then held their nerve in a shootout where goalkeeper Orlando Gill turned into the story of the night. It was Paraguay’s first run to the World Cup knockouts in years, and they did it by making themselves impossible to play through.

That is the template Alfaro will lean on again. Paraguay are not going to out-pass France or trade blows in a shootout of chances. Their route past Germany was built on organisation, a back line that stayed compact for 120 minutes, and the belief that one moment from Enciso or a set piece might be enough. Against a France attack this sharp, they will need all of that and probably a save or two more from Gill.

France look like the team to beat

Where Paraguay have ground their way through, France have cruised. Didier Deschamps’ side came through their group with maximum points and then dismantled Sweden 3-0 in the last 32, a performance that had the look of a team settling into its stride at the right time. Kylian Mbappe scored twice and Bradley Barcola added a third, with Michael Olise pulling the strings and setting up two of the goals from the right.

Mbappe is the obvious danger. His double against Sweden took him to six for the tournament and moved him to within touching distance of Lionel Messi’s all-time World Cup scoring mark, and he is doing it while France barely get out of second gear. Behind him, Deschamps has attacking depth that most sides at this World Cup would envy. This is also the coach’s farewell tournament, with Deschamps set to step down once the competition ends, and a France squad that knows it may be his last chance to hand him another trophy.

Can lightning strike twice?

The logic of the tie is simple. France have the better players in almost every position, and if the game opens up they should have too much for Paraguay. The complication is that Paraguay have no intention of letting it open up. They will sit deep, make France work for every yard, and back themselves to survive to another shootout if it comes to that. Germany found out how frustrating that can be.

France will be wary of exactly that trap, and Deschamps’ teams are rarely careless in knockout football. But a single lapse, a set piece conceded, or another Gill masterclass from the spot, and the biggest name left in the bottom half of the draw could be the next to fall. The tie kicks off at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia at 5pm local time on Saturday, July 4, which is 2:30am IST on Sunday for anyone in India planning to stay up for it.

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