The Golden Boot race is wide open, and the World Cup’s format will decide it

The group stage is into its final round of games, the knockout bracket is filling up, and the World Cup’s adidas Golden Boot already looks like one of the most crowded races in years. Lionel Messi leads it with five goals. Behind him sit three of the best forwards on the planet, all on four, and a couple of names almost nobody had pencilled in. With a 48-team format stretching the road to the final longer than ever, I am not sure the man out in front today will be the one holding the prize next month.

Messi sets the pace, the chasers crowd in

Messi has scored all five of Argentina’s goals so far, a hat-trick against Algeria and a brace against Austria, and he passed the all-time World Cup scoring record along the way. He turned 39 during the group stage, which makes the run faintly ridiculous, and it tells you everything about why Argentina lean on him.

The problem, if you can call it that, is how many players are right on his heels. Kylian Mbappé has four after his brace sank Iraq. Erling Haaland has four on his World Cup debut, including that side-foot volley off the bar against Senegal. Vinícius Júnior also has four, having scored in all three of Brazil’s group games, the first Brazilian to do that since Ronaldo and Rivaldo in 2002. Any of the three can overhaul a 39-year-old who may not play every minute of every knockout tie.

Why the format matters more than the current lead

Here is the thing about a Golden Boot. It usually goes to a forward whose team reaches the final, because that player gets two or three more games than everyone else. In a 48-team World Cup the gap between going out in the last 32 and lifting the trophy is enormous, so the smarter question is not who leads now but whose team I trust to keep playing.

That is where I start to drift away from Messi. Argentina look reliant on him in a way that could either carry them to the final or see them ambushed early. France and Brazil feel built to last, which is why Mbappé and Vinícius are the two I would back if you made me choose today. Haaland is the wild card. Norway are fun and he is unplayable on his day, but I would be surprised if they go deep enough to give him the volume of games he needs.

Do not forget the bench bandits

The most interesting names might be the ones lower down. Germany’s Deniz Undav has three goals and two assists in barely an hour of football, almost all of it off the bench, which is a wild return for a player who cannot get a start. Canada’s Jonathan David also has three, including a hat-trick in the 6-0 win over Qatar. If the leaders cancel each other out and nobody runs clear, the tiebreakers come into play, and they reward assists first, then a higher goals-per-minute ratio. Undav, on his current minutes, would love that math.

My honest read: Messi is the romantic pick and the current leader, but I would put my money on Mbappé or Vinícius, simply because I expect France and Brazil to still be standing in week four. Ask me again after the round of 32, though. This race has barely started, and with this many scorers in form, one big knockout night could turn the whole thing on its head.

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