The 48-team World Cup was supposed to be soft. The last 32 says otherwise
Germany and the Netherlands are gone, both on penalties, and the expanded format that was meant to cushion the big sides has done nothing of the sort once the knockouts began.
Jun 30, 2026
When FIFA bloated the World Cup to 48 teams, the loudest worry was that it would be too soft. More teams, more dead rubbers, a group stage padded out so that the giants could stroll into the knockouts with a defeat or two already banked. A safety net for the big boys, the critics said. Then the round of 32 arrived, and Germany and the Netherlands went home.
The cushion only lasts so long
The expanded format did give the heavyweights a softer ride through the group stage. That much was true. What it did not do was protect them once the knockouts began, and the first proper round of the bracket has been ruthless. Germany are out, beaten by Paraguay in a shootout, the first Germany have ever lost at a World Cup. The Netherlands are out too, undone by Morocco from twelve yards in the very next match. Two European sides who would have backed themselves to reach the quarters are watching the rest of this tournament from their sofas.
That is the thing about a bigger draw. It buys you time in June, but it cannot hand you a goal in a tied knockout match, and it certainly cannot take a penalty for you. The net stretches only as far as the last 32. After that, the football is exactly as cruel as it always was.
The outsiders are not here to make up the numbers
For me, the better story is what the so-called lesser teams are doing with their chance. Paraguay outlasted Germany over two hours of football and then held their nerve from the spot. Morocco have knocked a major European nation out of a second straight World Cup. Canada, on home soil, have ridden the noise all the way into the last 16. Even Brazil, who many still fancy to win the whole thing, needed a stoppage-time winner to escape a Japan side that should have buried them.
Add in the record number of African teams who reached this stage, and the picture is clear. The gap between the traditional powers and everyone else is not what it was, and a 48-team field has handed more of those outsiders a platform to prove it. That feels like a feature, not a bug.
I was wrong, and happily so
I will admit I was one of the sceptics. A 48-team World Cup sounded like a money-driven dilution of the thing I love, and the early group games did little to change my mind. But knockout football has a way of cutting through all of that. The drama does not care how many teams qualified or how generous the path was to get here. Germany and the Netherlands found that out the hard way, and I suspect they will not be the last big name to.