Germany’s exit to Paraguay is the same old story, just with better players

Germany are out of the World Cup, beaten on penalties by Paraguay in the last 32, and the temptation is to file it under bad luck. A shootout is a coin toss, the story goes, and Germany happened to call it wrong for the first time at a World Cup. I don’t buy it. The shootout was where this ended, but it is not why it ended.

Look at how the night actually unfolded. Paraguay, ranked 41st in the world to Germany’s 10th, went in front through Julio Enciso just before half-time and then did what well-drilled underdogs do at tournaments. They sat in, stayed compact, and dared Germany to find a way through. Germany had the ball for long stretches and created almost nothing with it. Kai Havertz headed in Florian Wirtz’s cross to level after the break, Jonathan Tah had a header chalked off in extra time, and that was about the size of the German threat across two hours.

The shootout only confirmed it

When it went to penalties, the same lack of conviction showed up. Havertz and Nick Woltemade both saw their kicks saved by Orlando Gill, Tah ballooned his over the bar, and even Manuel Neuer’s save from Fabian Balbuena could not paper over the misses at the other end. Paraguay held their nerve, Germany did not. Four times before this, Germany had gone to a shootout at a World Cup and won. That record is gone, and the manner of it tells you the swagger went with it a while ago.

Here is what makes this one sting more than the last couple. You could explain away the group-stage exits of 2018 and 2022 by pointing at a squad in transition, a generation that had aged out with nothing ready to replace it. That excuse has expired. This Germany team has Wirtz and Havertz in their prime, Joshua Kimmich marshalling it from the middle, and enough attacking talent that a 7-1 opening win over Curaçao barely raised an eyebrow. The players are back. The problem is what happens when a tournament gets tight.

A pattern that is hard to ignore

Because the warning was right there in the group. Germany beat Curaçao 7-1, ground out a 2-1 comeback against Côte d’Ivoire, and then let a 1-0 lead turn into a 2-1 defeat to Ecuador in their final game. Topping the group flattered them. The Ecuador loss was the more honest result, a side that controls possession but cannot kill a game, and Paraguay simply read from the same script with more discipline.

String it together and the trend is uncomfortable for a four-time world champion. Out in the group in 2018, out in the group in 2022, a quarter-final on home soil at Euro 2024 that ended against Spain in extra time, and now a last-32 exit to a team they were expected to beat comfortably. Julian Nagelsmann was supposed to be the manager who turned the talent back into trophies. Nearly three years into the job, the talent is obvious and the trophies are not.

None of this means Germany are a bad team. They are not. But there is a difference between a good team and one that knows how to win when the football turns ugly, and right now Germany keep ending up on the wrong side of it. Paraguay deserve their place in the last 16, and they earned it by doing the basics better for longer. For Germany, the rebuild that was meant to be finished looks like it has a way to run yet.

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