Four teams, two ties, and a France-Spain semi-final that feels like the final

Argentina’s win over Switzerland overnight completed the World Cup’s final four, and it threw up a draw that feels almost unfair on the neutral. Two of the tournament favourites, France and Spain, have been thrown together in one semi-final. England and Argentina, carrying more history between them than any other pairing left, meet in the other. The trophy is four days of football away, and picking a winner has rarely felt harder.

France against Spain is the final, a week early

Whoever thought France and Spain would meet in the final has been robbed. They collide on Tuesday in Arlington, and on form it is the standout tie of the whole knockout stage. France dispatched Morocco 2-0 with Kylian Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele on the scoresheet, a reminder that when their front line clicks nobody in this tournament has an answer for it. Spain got here the harder way, edging Belgium 2-1 with another late Mikel Merino goal, which has become a theme of their run rather than a fluke.

If I had to back one team to lift the trophy on July 19, it would be the winner of this game, whoever it turns out to be. France carry the individual match-winners. Spain carry the control, the ability to strangle a game and score when it matters. It is the kind of semi-final you would happily watch as a final, and the losers will feel they went out to the best team in the competition rather than the run of the draw.

England and Argentina, and all that baggage

The other semi is a different kind of occasion. England reached the last four thanks to a Jude Bellingham brace in extra time against Norway, riding their luck and their big names in equal measure. Argentina, the holders, have not always convinced but keep finding a way, and in Lionel Messi they still have the one player capable of settling any match in a single moment.

Then there is the history. These two have not met in a competitive game for 24 years, since the 2002 World Cup, and anyone who grew up on 1986 and 1998 knows exactly what this fixture drags up. On paper England look the fresher, more balanced side. My worry for them is that big-occasion knockout football against Argentina has a way of not going to the paper. If Messi produces one more of his moments in Atlanta, all the England analysis in the world will not matter.

Where I land

I keep coming back to the Arlington semi. France and Spain are the two best teams left, and the side that survives that meeting should walk into the final as favourite regardless of who comes through the other half. If I am forced to pick, I will take Spain, simply because they have learned how to win the ugly games as well as the pretty ones, and champions usually need both.

But this is the point in a World Cup where predictions go to die. Four teams, two enormous nights, and a final in New Jersey waiting for whoever handles the pressure best. I would not bet my house on any of them, and that is exactly why the next week is going to be so good.

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