Ballon d’Or votes closed on 28 September, and Harry Kane’s 73 goals should beat Lamine Yamal’s World Cup

The envelopes were sealed nearly a month ago. Ballon d’Or jurors had until 28 September to send in their top tens, so nothing that happens before Monday night at the London Palladium can change who wins. All that has moved since is the noise around it, and the noise has swung from Harry Kane to Lamine Yamal and back again.

At the start of October a run of late money made Yamal the favourite with UK bookmakers, and Kane, odds-on since early August, slipped to second. Three weeks later Kane is back in front and shorter than he has been all race. The bookmakers have seen the ballots no more than you or I have, so read nothing into it beyond mood. My view hasn’t moved either way: it should be Kane.

Kane’s season in one line: 73 goals

The reference period ran from 3 August 2025 to the World Cup final on 19 July 2026, and across it Kane scored 73 goals in 65 games for Bayern Munich and England. By Bundesliga.com’s count, only Lionel Messi’s 2011-12 for Barcelona and Argentina beats it this century.

For Bayern it was 61 goals in 51 matches: 36 in the Bundesliga, 10 in the DFB-Pokal, 14 in the Champions League and one in the Supercup. That brought a third straight Bundesliga scoring crown, a second European Golden Shoe, the league title and Bayern’s first DFB-Pokal since 2020, sealed by Kane’s hat-trick in a 3-0 final win over Stuttgart. He finished one goal behind Kylian Mbappé in the Champions League scoring chart.

Then came the summer. Kane scored six times at the World Cup, and England beat France 6-4 in the third-place play-off for their best finish since they won it in 1966.

The case for Yamal is the trophy that matters most

Yamal has the medal Kane does not. Spain beat Argentina 1-0 in extra time in New Jersey, with Ferran Torres scoring in the 106th minute, and Yamal had already won La Liga and the Spanish Super Cup with Barcelona. He scored 16 league goals and led La Liga for assists with 11. He is 19 and already owns a European Championship and a World Cup.

The weak spot is the World Cup itself. Yamal scored once all tournament, the opener in a 4-0 group win over Saudi Arabia on 21 June. Before the semi-final against France he said nobody would remember his goals if Spain won, and he had a point. Spain did win. But the Ballon d’Or is an individual prize, and over the tournament Yamal was one important part of a very good team rather than the reason it won.

Why Kane should get it

The old line on Kane was that he scored plenty and won nothing. It does not hold any more. He won the Bundesliga, he won a cup, he scored in both legs of a Champions League semi-final that Bayern lost 6-5 on aggregate to Paris Saint-Germain, and he led the line for England’s best World Cup finish since 1966.

Yamal’s season was brilliant, and he has years to win this award. For 2025-26, though, the voters were asked who played best, and no one in Europe scored like Kane. If the jurors went with the medal count, Spain’s World Cup will be enough for Yamal. If they went with what happened on the pitch, England will have their first Ballon d’Or winner since Michael Owen in 2001, at the first ceremony ever held in London.

Thierry Henry and Kate Scott host from 20:00 GMT on Monday, which is 1:30am on Tuesday in India.

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