Watkins has agreed terms with Al-Hilal, and Villa have a week to replace him

Ollie Watkins was left out of the Aston Villa squad at Brighton on Sunday, and the reason was not much of a secret. The England striker is reported to have agreed personal terms with Al-Hilal, turned down a new four-year contract at Villa Park, and made it clear to Unai Emery that he wants the move.

What is missing is the only part Watkins cannot decide himself. Al-Hilal have had a run of bids turned down, the most recent reported at around £38m, and Villa want something closer to £55m. Until those two numbers meet, nothing happens.

Emery has stopped pretending otherwise

Villa’s manager was asked about it before the Brighton game and did not bother with the usual deflection. “We have an issue with him, it is clear,” Emery said. “We had offers for him but he is our player. I don’t want to sell him but it can change if it is a good option for him, the club and I can replace him in the squad.”

That last clause is the whole negotiation. Emery is not blocking the move on principle. He is refusing to be left with nobody to play up front.

Al-Hilal need to move Benzema first

Watkins has been lined up as the man to lead the Al-Hilal attack, which is a polite way of saying he would take Karim Benzema’s place. Benzema is 38 and has been reported for weeks to be in talks over ending his contract a year early, with the money owed on that final year the sticking point.

He has not gone quietly, either. Benzema publicly pushed back on 21 August, saying he was staying and that there was nothing in the stories. Reports out of Saudi Arabia have consistently tied any Watkins deal to the Benzema question being settled first, which is one more thing outside Villa’s control.

The two clubs are not working to the same deadline

This is where it gets uncomfortable for Villa. The Premier League window shuts at 11pm UK time on 1 September. The Saudi Pro League window runs until 12 October.

So Al-Hilal can wait. If they wanted to be ruthless about it, they could let the clock run down, watch Villa’s replacement options go elsewhere, and come back on 2 September knowing Villa can no longer sign anyone. Villa have about a week to either get their price or take him off the market and mean it.

Their replacement of choice is Nicolas Jackson, who played under Emery at Villarreal. Chelsea value him at £65m and want a permanent sale rather than another loan, having sent him to Bayern Munich for last season. Atletico Madrid want him too, though they would rather borrow him, which is exactly the kind of competition Villa do not need in a week where they are also trying to hold a line on Watkins.

What Villa would be losing

Watkins is 30. He scored 16 Premier League goals last season and led the line through the Europa League run that ended with Villa beating Freiburg 3-0 in Istanbul on 20 May. He went to the World Cup with England this summer.

He is also the last recognisable name in an attack that has been picked apart since May. Morgan Rogers went to Chelsea for £117m and Donyell Malen to Roma, with Youri Tielemans and Ezri Konsa leaving for Manchester United and Arsenal. Brighton beat Villa 4-0 on Sunday, Joao Gomes was sent off before half-time on his league debut, and it did not look like a squad with much left to give away.

Emery said he wants a replacement before he sanctions anything. On current evidence he is right to.

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