India need five wins from their last seven Tests, and even that might not be enough

Four points for a draw, twelve for a win. India could not take the last Sri Lanka wicket in Colombo, so they took four instead of twelve, and the eight points that went missing on the final afternoon have changed what the rest of their World Test Championship looks like.

Where India actually are

Eleven Tests played this cycle, five won, four lost, two drawn. That is 68 points from a possible 132, or 51.52 per cent. Seven Tests remain, worth 84 points, which puts India’s ceiling at 152 out of 216 and their floor a long way below the line.

To finish on 60 per cent, the number that usually gets a side into the conversation, India need 62 of those 84 points. There is no way to assemble 62 from fewer than five wins. Five wins and two defeats gets them to 59.3 per cent, which is under the bar. Five wins and a draw clears it. Six wins and a defeat puts them on 64.8. Winning all seven means 70.37, and nothing else in the cycle would matter.

The uncomfortable part is that 60 per cent has not been the actual entry price recently. South Africa and Australia met in the last final on 69.44 and 67.54 per cent. On those numbers India would need to win all seven, and the difference between six wins and seven is the difference between a good winter and a finished campaign.

Seven Tests, two venues, no easy ones

India play two Tests in New Zealand in November, at the Basin Reserve in Wellington from 19 November and at Hagley Oval from 27 November. They have not won a Test series in New Zealand since 2009. The last time they went, in 2020, they lost both matches, one by ten wickets and one by seven.

Then Australia arrive for five Tests between 21 January and 3 March 2027. India used to bank those. New Zealand won 3-0 in India in November 2024, the first time India had been swept at home in a three-Test series by anyone, and South Africa won 2-0 in November 2025, closing with a 408-run win at Guwahati. Home advantage is a thing India talk about more confidently than the last two years justify.

So five wins from seven means, realistically, taking at least one in New Zealand and then beating Australia four times in five. Australia have won one of their last twelve Tests in India, which is the strongest argument in India’s favour. It is also the only one.

The teams India have to get past

Australia sit on 80 per cent after eight wins from ten. Twelve Tests are left for them and only four are at home, all against New Zealand, with three in South Africa and five in India after that. Six more wins would leave them on 63.64 per cent. They are comfortable rather than safe.

South Africa have played only four Tests, won three, and are on 75 per cent. Eight of their remaining ten are at home. Three of those eight are against Australia, which is the series that decides a lot. Seven wins from ten would put them on 71.43 and effectively end the argument.

New Zealand are on 72.22 after four wins from six, with India and Sri Lanka to host and Australia to visit for four Tests. Bangladesh, on 55.56 after a 1-1 draw with Australia, need 47 points from six matches and four of those are at home. None of these sides is going to fall away on its own.

Two things that will not happen

England are on 29.76 per cent from fourteen Tests, and the reason is only partly the 5-8 record. They have been docked fourteen points for slow over-rates in this cycle. Winning all seven of their remaining matches without another penalty would take them to 53.17, which will not be enough. Pakistan, on 19.05 with eight points already deducted, top out at 56.41 even if they win six from six.

Thirty-three matches are left in the cycle. Australia have twelve of them, South Africa and New Zealand ten each. India have seven, and more ground to make up than any of the three. After Colombo there is no slack left in a single one of them.

More long reads from our cricket desk