The World Cup warm-ups are sending the favourites a warning

In the space of two evenings, France lost to Ivory Coast on Thursday, Spain were held by Iraq, and the Netherlands were beaten by Algeria the night before. Three of European football’s heavyweights, three results that nobody had pencilled in, all within 24 hours of each other less than a week before the World Cup begins. You can wave it away as the meaningless noise of friendlies. I am not sure you should.

What actually happened

Start with Nantes, where it was most striking. Rayan Cherki put France ahead before the break and the game looked to be following the script. Then Didier Deschamps rang the changes at half-time, Guela Doué levelled just before the hour, and Amad Diallo finished off a comeback with six minutes left. Ivory Coast, not France, walked off the better side on French soil.

In La Coruña, Spain went in front through Ferran Torres inside 16 minutes, only for Merchas Doski to answer with a long-range strike that earned Iraq a draw against a much-changed home side. Up in Rotterdam, Algeria did the simplest thing of all and just beat the Netherlands, a single goal enough to send the Dutch off on a sour note. None of these were the strongest available eleven from the bigger nation. That is exactly the caveat worth holding onto.

The case for taking it lightly

Friendlies in this window are not really about winning. France emptied their bench, Spain rested key men, and the Netherlands treated the night as a workout. Coaches are checking fitness and combinations, not chasing results, and a defeat in early June tells you very little about how a side will play when the points are real. By the second week of the tournament, half of what we saw on Thursday will look irrelevant.

So if you want to dismiss it, the argument is right there. The favourites were not really trying, the outsiders had everything to prove, and one warm-up does not rewrite the gap in quality that still exists between France and Ivory Coast over a full campaign.

Why I think it matters anyway

Here is what gives me pause. This is a 48-team World Cup, twelve groups of four, with the top two and the eight best third-placed sides going through to a round of 32. The maths is generous to the outsider in a way it has never been before. A team like Ivory Coast or Algeria does not need to be brilliant for three weeks. They need a couple of big nights, and the format now rewards exactly that.

Put those two things together, the shortened path to the knockouts and a set of results that show the smaller nations are not remotely intimidated, and the warm-ups start to read less like noise and more like a hint. The established sides will still be there at the business end. Most of them usually are. But the idea that the group stage is a formality, that the big names can stroll through and save themselves for July, looks shakier than it did a week ago.

I would not bet against France or Spain lifting the trophy. I would, though, expect at least one of them to be dragged into a scare they did not see coming, by a team that spent this week proving it could do it. The favourites have been warned. Whether they were listening is the question that the next month will answer.

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