The dark horses who could gatecrash the 2026 World Cup

Every World Cup throws up a team nobody had circled, and the 2026 edition looks built to produce more of them than usual. Forty-eight teams, an extra knockout round and a month of football in the North American summer all tilt the odds a little further from the usual order. You still would not bet against Spain, France, Brazil or Argentina. But the gap between the elite and the chasing pack has rarely felt this thin.

So who are the genuine outsiders worth a look? Start by clearing up one name that keeps getting filed under the wrong heading.

Morocco have outgrown the label

Calling Morocco a dark horse in 2026 feels lazy. This is a side that reached the semi-finals in Qatar four years ago, knocking out Spain and Portugal before France ended the run, and the spine of that team is still standing. Achraf Hakimi and Yassine Bounou lead a squad with nine survivors from the 2022 group, which is a frightening amount of tournament know-how to carry into a draw.

The question mark hangs over the dugout. Morocco arrive under a new coach in Mohamed Ouahbi, who took over after Walid Regragui stepped down in March, and they open against Brazil on June 13. Get a result against the five-time champions and the rest of the path suddenly looks a lot less daunting. Morocco are not a surprise package any more, but they remain the outsider most likely to reach the closing weekend.

Ivory Coast are the side I keep coming back to

If you want a true bolt from the blue, the Ivory Coast make the strongest case. They came through African qualifying without losing a match and, remarkably, without conceding a single goal across the campaign. Then, on Thursday in Nantes, they came from a goal down to beat France 2-1, Amad Diallo finishing off a move six minutes from the end for a win the Elephants had never managed against the French before.

A defence that miserly, paired with a forward line carrying that much European polish, is exactly the profile that survives the attritional middle rounds of a tournament. They will not start as anyone’s favourite, and that suits a counter-attacking side just fine. Of all the outsiders, this is the one I would actually put a few quid on.

Norway and the Haaland factor

Then there is Norway, back at a World Cup for the first time since 1998. Twenty-eight years of waiting ended with a swagger: eight wins from eight in qualifying, Italy beaten home and away, and Erling Haaland scoring 16 goals along the way, double anyone else in Europe. A team built around the most lethal striker on the planet is a horrible draw for anybody.

The caveat is obvious. This is a squad with almost no tournament mileage, and that can tell when the matches tighten and the nerves jangle in a knockout. But if Haaland gets service and gets hot, Norway are capable of ruining somebody’s summer.

A few more to keep half an eye on

The hosts, the United States, will fancy a run on home soil with a young, fearless group and crowds firmly behind them. Ecuador conceded only five goals across their entire qualifying campaign, which makes them one of the meanest defensive units in the whole field. And Japan remain the team most likely to embarrass a European heavyweight, with a pressing game as disciplined as anyone’s. None of them will frighten the favourites on paper, but frightening people on paper was never the point of a dark horse.

My pick for the shock of the summer is the Ivory Coast, with the obvious health warning that calling these things is a mug’s game. The beauty of a bigger World Cup is that there is more room than ever for a team to catch fire at the right moment. Someone always does.

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