Norway are the World Cup dark horse nobody will want to draw
After 28 years away, Norway have arrived at the World Cup with Haaland, Odegaard and a perfect qualifying run behind them. They are the dark horse the seeds should fear.
Jun 11, 2026
Some teams reach a World Cup just happy to be there. Norway are not one of them. This is their first appearance at the tournament since 1998, yet they have turned up in North America with two of the best players in the world and a qualifying record that read like a warning. If one side outside the favourites is going to wreck a few plans this summer, my money is on Stale Solbakken’s team.
A long wait that ended in style
A generation of Norwegian fans grew up hearing about the side that beat Brazil in 1998 and never saw their country at a major tournament of their own. That changes now, and it did not happen quietly. Norway came through qualifying with a perfect record, winning all eight of their matches, and the standout results were a home-and-away double over Italy that effectively settled the group before the final round. Beating a four-time world champion twice is not the sort of thing dark horses usually manage on the way in.
Two players who tilt any game
The reason anyone should take Norway seriously starts with Erling Haaland. At 25, he comes into his first major international tournament as his country’s all-time leading scorer, and he has spent years turning half-chances into goals against the best defences club football can offer. A striker like that flattens the gap between a good team and a great one in a single moment.
Then there is Martin Odegaard, who arrives fresh from captaining Arsenal to the Premier League title. Where Haaland is the finisher, Odegaard is the player who makes the team tick, the one who finds the pass that turns a stalemate into a chance. Plenty of contenders would love to have either man. Norway have both, and the rest of the squad has grown up around them.
A group they can win
The draw has not been unkind. Norway share Group I with France, Senegal and Iraq, and the schedule sets up nicely. They open against Iraq, back at the World Cup for the first time since 1986, then face Senegal, before what could be a high-stakes meeting with France in the final round. Take care of the first two and Norway would travel into the knockout rounds with belief rather than relief, and that is when a team carrying a player like Haaland becomes genuinely dangerous.
Where the doubt creeps in
None of this makes them favourites, and it would be dishonest to pretend otherwise. Norway’s depth thins out quickly once you move past the two stars, and their defence has not been tested by elite opposition in a knockout setting the way the established powers have. Tournament football has a habit of punishing teams that lean on one or two names, and a single injury to Haaland would change the conversation entirely.
Even so, the case is there. A perfect qualifying run, two world-class players in their prime, and a group that opens with winnable games is exactly the recipe a dark horse needs. I would not back Norway to lift the trophy. I would be very wary of drawing them. For a country that has waited 28 years to matter again at this level, that is a fine place to start.