France top the betting, but Spain look the team to beat at this World Cup

The bookmakers have made France the team to beat at this World Cup, and on paper that is hard to argue with. Mbappe is scoring, the squad is deep, and the odds say they are the most likely side to lift the trophy on July 19. Watch Spain play, though, and I keep coming back to the same thought: this is the team I would least want to draw in the knockouts.

It did not look that way after the opening game. Spain were held to a 0-0 draw by debutants Cape Verde, a result that had the doubters sharpening their knives and asking whether the European champions had turned up at all. Then they played Saudi Arabia, and the version of Spain everyone feared showed up.

The Saudi Arabia statement

The 4-0 win in Atlanta was as one-sided as the scoreline suggests. Lamine Yamal opened the scoring inside ten minutes for his first goal at a World Cup, Mikel Oyarzabal struck twice in the space of three minutes, and an own goal early in the second half finished the job. Oyarzabal’s burst was historic in its own right, only the second time a player has scored twice and set up another inside the opening 25 minutes of a World Cup match, the first since Hungary’s László Fazekas achieved the feat in 1982.

That is the thing about this Spain side. When the front players click, they win big, and the game is often gone by half-time. Yamal is still only 18 and already looks like the most dangerous attacker in the tournament when he is in the mood.

Depth where it counts

What separates Spain from most of the contenders is that they are not one injury away from trouble. Rodri anchors the midfield, Pedri runs it, and Luis de la Fuente can call on Gavi, Martin Zubimendi, Nico Williams, Dani Olmo and Ferran Torres without the level dropping much at all. Sixteen of this squad won Euro 2024, so the experience of going deep in a major tournament is already there.

There is a quirk worth noting too. De la Fuente named his 26 without a single Real Madrid player, a first for Spain, and it has not cost them anything. This is a Barcelona-heavy spine that has been playing together for years, and it shows in how quickly they move the ball.

The case for caution

None of this means Spain are nailed on. The Cape Verde draw was a reminder that a low block and a bit of frustration can knock them off their rhythm, and they still have Uruguay to face before the group is done. Knockout football has a way of reducing the best sides to a single bad afternoon, and Yamal’s fitness, which was a worry in the build-up after a hamstring scare, is something they cannot afford to lose.

So no, I am not telling you to ignore France. But if I had to pick the team I would not want to see across the halfway line in a quarter-final, it would be the one in red. Spain do not need to be favourites to be the most frightening side left in the draw.

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