France begin their knockout run against Gyokeres and a hopeful Sweden
France won all three group games and look the team to beat. Sweden scraped through on one win but carry a striker who can turn a knockout tie on his own.
Jun 29, 2026
The numbers say this should be straightforward. France won all three of their group games by multiple goals, sit second in the world rankings, and carry the deepest squad in the tournament. Sweden squeezed into the last 32 as one of the best third-placed sides after a single win in the group stage. Yet knockout football rarely respects the form guide, and the two meet at MetLife Stadium with a place in the last 16 at stake, kicking off at 2:30am IST on Wednesday.
France look the part of contenders
Didier Deschamps is managing France at his final World Cup, and his team have made the group stage look like a procession. Kylian Mbappe set the tone with an early flurry of goals, Ousmane Dembele produced a first-half hat-trick to beat Norway, and the supporting cast is the envy of every other coach left in the draw. France did not just win Group I, they swept it, scoring freely and conceding little.
The luxury for Deschamps is that he can rotate and still field a frightening attack. When a manager can leave match-winners on the bench, the margin for a quiet day from any one star shrinks. France are short-priced favourites for a reason.
Sweden travel in hope, not expectation
Sweden are the underdogs and they know it. Graham Potter took them to the World Cup through the playoffs and has tried to build a more controlled, possession-minded side, but the group stage was a rollercoaster: a thrashing of Tunisia, a heavy defeat to the Netherlands, and a draw with Japan that was just enough to sneak through.
Their hope rests on a strike pairing most countries would envy. Viktor Gyokeres dragged them to this tournament almost single-handed, with the kind of playoff heroics that turn a striker into a national talisman, while Alexander Isak is still hunting the form that once made him one of the Premier League’s most feared finishers. If both click on the same night, Sweden have the firepower to trouble anyone. The worry is at the other end, where injuries have thinned an already modest defence.
Can the underdogs land a blow?
Sweden’s route to an upset is obvious enough: sit deep, stay in the game, and back Gyokeres to make one chance count. The problem is that France have the players to break down a low block and the pace to punish Sweden on the counter if they push. France should win, and win fairly comfortably. But Sweden have a forward capable of changing a knockout tie in a single moment, and that alone makes this worth setting an early alarm for.