Mbappe and Messi are level at the top of the World Cup Golden Boot race

Every World Cup throws up a subplot that runs alongside the trophy itself, and this one has handed us the tie nobody scripted but everybody wanted. With the last 16 nearly complete, Kylian Mbappe and Lionel Messi sit locked together at the top of the Golden Boot race on seven goals apiece, two of the game’s defining forwards separated by the thinnest of margins as the tournament tips into its decisive weeks.

Mbappe nudged back level when he tucked away a penalty in France’s win over Paraguay on Saturday, and that goal did more than draw him alongside Messi. It also handed him the advantage on the first tiebreaker. FIFA splits players level on goals by assists, and there Mbappe leads two to nil. Messi has created plenty for Argentina without his name going in the assist column, so for now the Frenchman holds the tie-break edge even though neither man has pulled clear on the scoresheet.

The heavyweight at the top

There is a neat symmetry to the pair sharing top billing. Mbappe won the Golden Boot in 2022 with eight goals, and he has spent this tournament playing like a man determined to keep it. Messi, at 39 and almost certainly at his final World Cup, keeps finding ways to matter. The idea that a 39-year-old would be trading blows at the summit of the scoring charts with a forward eleven years his junior would have sounded far-fetched a month ago. It is exactly what has happened.

Both still have road left to travel. France have reached the quarter-finals and face Morocco, while Messi’s Argentina meet Egypt for a place in the last four. More matches means more chances, and with two of the tournament’s most ruthless finishers still in the draw, the seven-all deadlock is unlikely to hold for long.

The chasers with games in hand

What keeps this interesting is that the two men in second place have not even played their last-16 ties yet. Harry Kane and Erling Haaland are both on five goals, two adrift, and both have a knockout game still to come. Kane’s England meet Mexico, while Haaland and Norway line up against Brazil. Two goals is a gettable gap when you have that much football left, and Kane in particular has a habit of scoring in bunches at major tournaments.

Behind them sit a cluster on four: Ousmane Dembele, still in the mix with France, Vinicius Junior, who carries Brazil’s threat, and Spain’s Mikel Oyarzabal. Any of them could surge if their side goes deep, and Dembele has the added advantage of playing for the same team as the current leader, which cuts both ways when the goals get shared around.

Who is best placed

If it comes down to opportunity, the forwards on the strongest teams have the edge, and that points back towards Mbappe and Messi. A striker whose country bows out in the last 16 has his tally frozen, which is why some of the earlier front-runners have already dropped out of the conversation. The men still standing in the quarter-finals will decide this, and France and Argentina both look built to go a long way.

Predicting a winner feels foolish with this much still to play. Mbappe has the form, the penalties and the assist tiebreaker. Messi has the occasion and a knack for the moment that no statistic captures. Kane and Haaland could blow the whole thing open in the next couple of days. For once, the race for the Golden Boot might be every bit as compelling as the race for the trophy.

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