Australia lead the Women’s T20 World Cup four, but South Africa are the team to fear

The Women’s T20 World Cup is down to its last four, and all of it now runs through south London. Australia meet West Indies at The Oval on Tuesday, England take on South Africa at the same ground on Thursday, and the two winners head to Lord’s for Sunday’s final. On paper it looks like Australia’s tournament to lose. I think it is closer than that, and I think South Africa are the side nobody in the Australian camp actually wants to see again.

Let me be honest about the favourites first, because pretending otherwise would be silly.

Australia are still the team to beat

You do not win six of these titles by accident, and the way Australia booked their semi-final told you everything. Set 171 by India at Lord’s, a total that has buried plenty of sides, they knocked it off with an over to spare. It was the highest successful chase in the history of the women’s tournament, and they made it look like a net session. Ellyse Perry and Ashleigh Gardner did the damage, and India, for all of Harmanpreet Kaur’s fight, were sent home.

That is the problem the other three face. Australia have not lost a game here, they have the deepest batting line-up in the competition, and they have spent a decade learning how to win the matches that matter. If you are picking with your head, you pick them. I get it.

But South Africa are the side I would fear most

Here is what keeps nagging at me. South Africa have now lost the last two World Cup finals, to Australia in 2023 and to New Zealand in 2024, and a team can only walk off that stage in tears so many times before something hardens in them. They have never won this trophy. They are running out of patience, and a hungry side with a point to prove is dangerous in a way a stat sheet does not capture.

They also have the bowling to choke a chase, and in Laura Wolvaardt a captain who can win a knockout on her own. They wobbled in the group stage, no question, and there were nights they looked beatable. But you do not reach back-to-back finals on luck. England stand in their way on Thursday, and beating the hosts in front of a home crowd would be the kind of statement a champion makes. I would not put it past them.

The wildcards: West Indies and the hosts

West Indies are the romance pick. Their only world title came back in 2016, and the road since has been bumpy, this tournament included. On their day, though, the power in that batting order can take a game away from anyone inside three overs. The trouble is you never quite know which West Indies turns up, and against Australia you cannot afford the version that fades. I would love to be wrong.

England, meanwhile, have done everything asked of them, winning all five group games and finishing top of their pool with a crowd behind them. Home advantage at a World Cup is real, and I do not want to undersell a side that has not put a foot wrong. My worry for them is simple. The two best teams left might be in the other half of the draw, and beating South Africa and then Australia in the space of a few days is a brutal ask.

So where does that leave a neutral, or an Indian fan still smarting from that Lord’s chase? With the most open women’s semi-final stage in years. My head says Australia lift it again. My gut says South Africa finally get the ending they have been chasing. Either way, The Oval this week is the place to be.

More of our cricket opinion and analysis