MI and LSG out, eight in the chase: where the IPL 2026 playoff math lands after Sunday's double-header
Sunday's double-header did not just hand out four points. It closed the door on two teams. Chennai Super Kings dragged the bottom out from Lucknow Super Giants at Chepauk, and a few hours later RCB chased down Mumbai Indians on the last ball in Raipur. Both LSG and MI are out of IPL 2026. Eight are still in the running for four playoff spots, with the league stage ending on 24 May.
Here is how each of the eight is placed and what each has to do over the closing 16 matches.
The 14-point block: RCB, SRH, GT
Three teams sit on 14 points after 11 matches each. Royal Challengers Bengaluru moved to the top of the table after Raipur and hold the strongest net run rate in the group, which is a tiebreaker that becomes very real in this league once teams finish level. One more win in their last three games and they are mathematically through.
Sunrisers Hyderabad have the same points but a softer NRR. Their remaining run is GT away on 12 May, CSK away on 18 May and RCB at home on 22 May, with the Bengaluru game already shaping up as a possible Qualifier 1 decider. Gujarat Titans, third on NRR, face SRH at home on 12 May, KKR away on 16 May and CSK at home on 21 May. One win across those three games gets GT to the safety mark of 16 points and almost certainly the playoffs.
Punjab Kings, on 13 with one game in hand
Punjab Kings sit fourth on 13 points but they have only played 10 matches, one fewer than the group above. They start with Delhi Capitals at Dharamsala on 11 May, then Mumbai at home on 14 May, RCB at home on 17 May and LSG away on 23 May. Two wins from those four take them past 16 points. Three wins would put them on 19 and in the Qualifier 1 conversation. The schedule is friendlier than it looks on paper because two of those games are against teams that have nothing left to play for in MI and LSG, but Dharamsala has not been the fortress they expected this season.
The bubble: CSK and RR on 12
Both Chennai Super Kings and Rajasthan Royals sit on 12 points after 11 games. Two wins from their last three almost certainly gets either of them home. One win leaves them sitting on 14 and praying that the teams above them blink.
CSK's three are all against teams that have something on the line: LSG away on 15 May, SRH at home on 18 May and GT away on 21 May. The home leg against SRH on 18 May is the bubble-versus-14-point clash that can flip the table by itself. Rajasthan get DC away on 17 May, LSG at home on 19 May and MI away on 24 May, which is on paper the friendliest finish among the chasing pack. Both teams' net run rates sit close to break-even, which means tiebreakers will not be friends in a logjam at 14 points.
The longshots: KKR on 9, DC on 8
Kolkata Knight Riders, the 2024 IPL champions, still have four matches and 16 points within reach: RCB away on 13 May, GT at home on 16 May, MI at home on 20 May and DC at home on 24 May. The math says they need four wins. The form, with a negative net run rate and a season that has been short on convincing performances, says even getting that done would still leave them dependent on results from the bubble.
Delhi Capitals have a thinner runway. Three games left and a maximum total of 14 points, so even a clean sweep does not guarantee qualification on its own. PBKS away on 11 May, RR at home on 17 May and KKR away on 24 May. Lose the opener and the rest of the season becomes a watching brief.
The line that decides this
The historical rule of thumb in a 14-game league phase has been that 16 points carries a side through. Six teams can still get there with the wins available. RCB, SRH and GT need one each. PBKS need two from four. CSK and RR need two from three and a touch of help on tiebreakers. KKR need a clean sweep and a queue of upsets. DC need a clean sweep and most of the same upsets.
The match that probably moves the most needles before next week is CSK v SRH at Chepauk on 18 May. CSK can climb out of the bubble with a win; SRH can clinch their spot. Right behind that, the KKR v GT game on 16 May at Eden Gardens is the one that could end Kolkata's defence of the title. The order of the playoff race is set. The order of the actual top four is not.
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