Bhuvneshwar and Rabada are tied at 24 wickets, and the Purple Cap tiebreaker is already sitting in one of their lockers
Going into the playoffs the Purple Cap race has narrowed to two men on the same number. Bhuvneshwar Kumar and Kagiso Rabada are tied at 24 wickets each, and the gap to third place is now wide enough that the title is between them. Three games of cricket are left and the seasoned campaigner has the cleaner route.
Economy is doing the work
The first thing the leaderboard shows is the gap that does not change with one more game. Bhuvneshwar Kumar has bowled all season at an economy of 7.61. Rabada is at 9.48. The IPL Purple Cap tiebreaker on equal wickets is economy. If they end the playoffs level on wickets, Bhuvneshwar walks away with the cap without bowling another over after the equaliser.
That puts the practical pressure entirely on Rabada. To win it outright he needs more wickets than Bhuvneshwar, not the same. Two scenarios live: Rabada outguns Bhuvneshwar across the GT side's playoff schedule, or he stays level and loses on economy. There is no draw.
The fixture math favours RCB and GT
Both leaders are at clubs locked into Qualifier 1 in Dharamsala on Tuesday. The win-and-final route gives a minimum two games. The lose-and-fall route gives three: Qualifier 2 on May 29, then the final. So neither Bhuvneshwar nor Rabada has a fixture-list disadvantage.
Anshul Kamboj, third on the table on 21 wickets for Chennai, has the opposite problem. CSK were knocked out by Gujarat in Ahmedabad on Thursday, which means Kamboj's season is over and his 21 wickets are frozen. Whoever finishes on top will pass him; the question is by how much.
The chasers behind
Rashid Khan sits fourth on 19 wickets at an economy of 8.10, and Eshan Malinga is fifth on 19 with an 8.38. Rashid plays the same fixtures as Rabada, which puts him in catching range if GT go deep. Malinga has Sunrisers in the Eliminator on May 27, and the only way he gets to the final is if SRH win two playoff games on the bounce. The pacer has been impressive enough to imagine a 7-wicket playoff streak, but it is the steepest of the chasing paths.
Nobody else on the top ten is realistically catching the leading pair. Both Bhuvneshwar and Rabada would have to dry up completely for the third-place finisher to take the cap.
A familiar finish for one of them
Bhuvneshwar has won the Purple Cap before, in 2016 and 2017, with 23 and 26 wickets respectively, and he remains the only bowler to win it in consecutive seasons. Lifting it again at 36, in a season where the early read on his career was that the heavy work was behind him, would be the kind of redemption story the IPL chases. Rabada won the Purple Cap in 2020 with 30 wickets for Delhi Capitals, and his 9.48 economy this season reflects the bowling order Gujarat have asked him to do at the death rather than a drop in standard.
The economy tiebreaker means the title is currently sitting in Bhuvneshwar's locker as we write. Rabada needs the next two or three games to flip that. The Dharamsala Qualifier on Tuesday is the first move.
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