Three in, one slot left: how the IPL 2026 playoff race looks after SRH joined the locked top
The IPL 2026 playoff race has narrowed sharply tonight at Chepauk. Sunrisers Hyderabad's chase of 181 sealed their berth and confirmed Gujarat Titans alongside them, so the league phase ends with Royal Challengers Bengaluru on 18 points, Gujarat and Hyderabad on 16, and five teams left swinging at the fourth and final spot.
Those five teams are Punjab Kings on 13 points, Rajasthan Royals on 12 with two games left, Delhi Capitals on 12, Kolkata Knight Riders on 11, and Chennai Super Kings on 12 with one game remaining. Mumbai Indians and Lucknow Super Giants were already out before the round began.
Punjab Kings: the easy maths, the hard form
Punjab have one game to play and 13 points already, which is the best base of the five contenders on offer. Even a loss in their final match leaves them on 13 and well above Delhi's reachable ceiling of 14. Their NRR of +0.227 is the strongest among the chasers, which is the second piece of insurance they need.
The catch is form. Punjab have lost six matches on the spin, including a 23-run defeat to Bengaluru in Dharamsala on Sunday. They will go into their final fixture hoping the maths makes the result irrelevant. If Rajasthan win out and Kolkata win their remaining two, the calculation moves to net run rate, and Punjab will want a comfortable win in the bank for that.
Rajasthan Royals: the only contender who can still hit 16
Two wins from two and Rajasthan finish on 16 points, level with Gujarat and Hyderabad. That is the only path among the four chasers that puts them level with the second and third seeds. NRR will then be the tiebreaker against any team also on 16; Rajasthan currently sit at plus 0.027, which is not much to work with.
They will also need to win both. A single defeat caps them at 14, which Punjab's 13-already and Kolkata's potential 15 both beat. Coming off the Delhi Capitals defeat at Arun Jaitley on Sunday, Riyan Parag's side has the most to gain and the most to do.
Delhi Capitals: alive on a single thread
Delhi are the awkward one. A win in their last game leaves them on 14 points, which only goes through if Punjab lose, Rajasthan lose both, and Kolkata's two-match return delivers fewer than four points. The path exists; it is also the thinnest path among the five. Their NRR of minus 0.871 is the weakest of any side still alive, so any tie-break ends with Delhi missing out.
Delhi rode the must-win against Rajasthan on Sunday with a five-wicket chase of 194, so the form line is at least intact. Whether that converts into a playoff slot is now mostly out of their hands.
Kolkata Knight Riders: a high ceiling, two games to land it
Kolkata have the second-best ceiling of the five. Two wins puts them on 15, ahead of Punjab's potential 13 or 15, and Finn Allen's 93 against Gujarat at Eden Gardens on Saturday says they have the firepower. NRR at minus 0.038 sits close to neutral, which keeps tiebreakers playable rather than fatal.
The realistic Kolkata route still asks for two wins and at least one stumble from Punjab or Rajasthan. Pandya's expected MI return on May 20 will hurt them; the GT fixture has gone, the MI rematch could be the rest of their tournament.
What the final week looks like
The league phase rounds off across the next six days. Rajasthan have Lucknow and Mumbai. Kolkata play Mumbai and Delhi. Punjab close with Lucknow. Royal Challengers meet Hyderabad and Gujarat face a still-alive Chennai; the first matters only for net run rate in the top two, while the second could yet settle the fourth playoff spot.
With three teams locked and one slot left, the rest of the table is a five-way scramble in which only Punjab can afford a loss without panicking. Everyone else needs to win every game and watch the calculator.
Related Tags:
Cricket Updates
