Arsenal are nine points clear and still nobody believes they have got it wrapped up
Nine points. In most seasons, at this stage, that is enough to start planning the open-top bus route. Arsenal have 70 points from 31 Premier League games. They have won 21 of those, drawn seven and lost three. The goal difference reads +39. By almost every measure, this is the best Arsenal side in two decades.
So why does nobody want to call it?
City have a game in hand and a point to prove
Manchester City sit on 61 points from 30 matches, which makes the gap effectively six if they win their game in hand. That is still a healthy lead, but it does not carry the same sense of finality. City have been here before, trailing and reeling opponents in. They did it to Liverpool in 2018-19. They have the squad depth, the experience and a manager in Pep Guardiola who treats the final 10 games of a season as a personal challenge.
The Carabao Cup final on March 22 did not help Arsenal’s nerves. City won 2-0 at Wembley through a Nico O’Reilly double, and while that was a knockout game rather than a league match, it reminded everyone that City can turn it on when it matters. Arsenal, even at their best, could not break them down.
The fixture list gets harder from here
Arsenal still have to go to the Etihad on April 19. That is the game that could decide everything. Win there, and the title is theirs to lose. Drop points, and suddenly City are within touching distance with momentum on their side.
Before that, Arsenal face a Champions League quarter-final against Sporting CP and an FA Cup quarter-final at Southampton. Mikel Arteta is fighting on three fronts, which sounds exciting until you realise it means compressing 15 or more matches into the final two months of the season. Legs get heavy. Squads get thin.
The Eze injury compounds the problem. Arsenal confirmed their midfielder will be out for four to six weeks with a calf injury picked up during the Champions League win over Leverkusen on March 17. Eze has been one of their best performers this season, and losing him for the run-in is a blow they did not need.
City’s schedule is kinder
City were knocked out of the Champions League by Real Madrid and face Liverpool in an FA Cup quarter-final on April 4. Their remaining league schedule means fewer selection headaches and the luxury of being able to prepare for most games properly. Their remaining Premier League opponents include Chelsea away and Aston Villa at home, but the run as a whole is manageable.
Arsenal, by contrast, could face a stretch in April where they play eight games in four weeks. That is where squads get tested, and while Arsenal have invested heavily in depth, there is a difference between having good squad players and having first-choice quality across every position.
The transfer window adds another layer
Even if Arsenal wrap up the title, the summer promises to reshape the top of the table. Arsenal are already being linked with PSG’s Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Bayern Munich’s Leon Goretzka. Liverpool, losing Salah, need to rebuild their attack. City never stand still.
The gap between first and fifth in the Premier League is only 21 points. Manchester United on 55, Aston Villa on 54 and Liverpool on 49 are all in the mix for Champions League places. Next season’s title race could look very different depending on who spends wisely this summer.
So is it done?
Probably. Nine points with seven games to play would normally be enough, and Arsenal have shown this season that they rarely drop points in clusters. They grind out results, they defend well, and they have Bukayo Saka producing moments of quality when things get tight.
But probably is not definitely. And until the maths says otherwise, there is enough uncertainty in the fixture list, enough quality in City’s squad and enough recent history of collapses to keep everyone honest. Arsenal know what it feels like to let a lead slip. They did it in 2022-23. The fact that they are still looking over their shoulder, even from nine points clear, tells you something about how deep those scars run.
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