Bayern need a two-goal turnaround at the Allianz against the PSG side that put five past them in Paris
Some Champions League ties are decided in midfield. The other one this week is going to be decided by who can outscore who. PSG took 5-4 at the Parc des Princes last Tuesday in a result that equaled the record for the most goals in a Champions League semi-final, last set by Eintracht Frankfurt's 6-3 win over Rangers in 1959-60, and the tie now goes to Munich with Bayern needing to win by at least two clear goals to reach Budapest.
The history is not kind. Bayern have not overturned a first-leg deficit in any of their five previous Champions League semi-final ties, going out on aggregate every time. Vincent Kompany returns to the touchline this week after watching the first leg from the stands, which is at least one upgrade, and the Allianz Arena has been a fortress this season. Bayern have lost only one of their last 29 Champions League home matches and won all six in this campaign.
What the first leg told us, and what it didn't
The 5-4 had everything. Harry Kane scored a 17th-minute penalty to put Bayern up. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia equalised in the 24th, then Joao Neves headed PSG in front in the 33rd. Michael Olise levelled before half-time before Ousmane Dembele's stoppage-time penalty made it 3-2 to PSG at the break. Kvaratskhelia and Dembele added a second each in the space of 143 seconds in the second half to put PSG 5-2 up by the 58th minute, and only a Bayern double from Dayot Upamecano in the 65th and Luis Diaz in the 68th prevented the tie running away from them entirely.
What the first leg told us is that PSG's front three carries chance creation that Bayern's defence cannot fully shut down on a good night. What it didn't tell us is whether PSG can do this in an Allianz where the home side know they have to chase from the first whistle. Luis Enrique rested every starter in PSG's most recent league outing to keep legs fresh for Wednesday, which says everything about what he thinks of the tie's standing.
Bayern need Kane and Olise on song
Harry Kane has 13 Champions League goals this season and has scored in each of his last six CL appearances, the longest such run by an Englishman in the European Cup or Champions League. His penalty in the first leg was the kind of goal that comes naturally. The open-play efforts that Bayern need will require Olise and Jamal Musiala to find them in the channels they enjoy.
Kompany's likely XI runs Manuel Neuer in goal; Josip Stanisic, Dayot Upamecano, Jonathan Tah and Alphonso Davies in the back four; Joshua Kimmich and Aleksandar Pavlovic in the double pivot; Olise and Musiala wider; Luis Diaz and Kane up top.
PSG without Hakimi but with everything else
The right side of PSG's defence is the one open question. Achraf Hakimi tore a thigh muscle at the end of the first leg and is out for the next few weeks per a club update, which costs Luis Enrique his most aggressive defensive width and the player whose overlapping runs gave Dembele so much room in Paris. Warren Zaire-Emery, a 20-year-old midfielder by trade, is expected to fill in at right-back.
The front three around Kvaratskhelia, Dembele and Desire Doue will not need to change for Munich. Kvaratskhelia has been involved in 15 goals in this Champions League campaign already, a record by a PSG player in a single campaign, with seven of those coming in the knockout stage. The Georgian left-winger's matchups with Stanisic and Davies are the duels Bayern's defensive shape will be built around.
What it comes down to
Bayern need to win the match outright by two or more, or win by exactly one and take the tie to extra time, ideally off the back of an early goal that flips the psychology. PSG need to draw or to lose by exactly one. Both teams have scored 40-plus goals in this Champions League campaign already, with PSG on 43 and Bayern on 42, leaving Barcelona's all-time record of 45 goals from 1999-2000 within reach. Wednesday at the Allianz is unlikely to settle anything quietly, and Bayern will probably need a goal or two more than they would normally feel safe with.
Kick-off is at 21:00 CET on Wednesday at the Fußball Arena München. Whoever advances meets the winner of Tuesday's Arsenal vs Atletico tie at the Puskas Arena in Budapest on May 30.
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