Arsenal and Atletico return to the Emirates with a Champions League final 90 minutes away
Three penalty awards, one VAR overturn, and a single goal at each end. That was the first leg in Madrid last Wednesday, and on aggregate Arsenal and Atletico walk into the Emirates tonight with the simplest of equations: win and a Champions League final in Budapest is yours.
A 1-1 result this evening would still send the tie to extra time, since UEFA scrapped the away goals rule before the 2021-22 season. So Mikel Arteta's side need to do at the Emirates what they could not quite do at the Metropolitano, which is convert a long stretch of pressure into something that survives a video review.
What the first leg actually showed
The 1-1 result hides the shape of last Tuesday's match. Arsenal had the better of it for long stretches. Viktor Gyokeres won and converted the penalty that put them ahead just before the interval, the first goal he has scored in the Champions League knockout stage and the first ever scored in a CL semi-final by a Swedish player. The reply came from Julian Alvarez, whose own spot-kick after the break was his 25th goal in the competition in 41 appearances, a faster Argentine run to the mark than Lionel Messi's 25 in 42.
The tie's pivot moment came with 13 minutes to play. Eberechi Eze went down inside the Atletico box and the on-field decision was a penalty, but VAR pulled it back. Arsenal had won the territorial battle and the chance count for the night. They flew home with a tie that could still go either way.
Arteta's lineup is closer to full strength
Martin Odegaard is back from a knee injury, Kai Havertz is fit again after a muscle problem, and Bukayo Saka has trained without restriction after the Achilles issue that had Arteta withdrawing him at half-time against Fulham. The losses are still real, though: Jurrien Timber's groin and Mikel Merino's foot keep both out and on the bench at best.
The likely XI runs David Raya in goal, with Ben White, William Saliba, Gabriel and Piero Hincapie across a back four. Martin Zubimendi and Declan Rice screen the middle, Eberechi Eze and Bukayo Saka start either side of Gabriel Martinelli, and Viktor Gyokeres leads the line. Saka's return is the change that worries Atletico most, because he stretches their compact 4-4-2 in a way Arsenal's other wingers struggle to do.
Atletico ride Alvarez and not much else
Diego Simeone is without Pablo Barrios and Nico Gonzalez, who both have thigh injuries, but Alvarez has been cleared after the suspected ankle problem that forced him off in Madrid. He was the visitors' only consistent goal threat last week, and he is the player they have to lean on if they want to take this to extra time or beyond.
Behind him, expect the familiar 4-4-2 shape: Jan Oblak; Nahuel Molina, Marc Pubill, Robin Le Normand, Matteo Ruggeri; Koke, Johnny Cardoso, Thiago Almada, Alex Baena; Ademola Lookman and Antoine Griezmann. Lookman was the late fitness watch of the week. He is in the squad and is expected to start in north London.
What it comes down to
Opta's model has Arsenal at 56% to win in normal time, which feels about right given home advantage and the chance count from the first leg. Atletico have lost six of their last seven Champions League away matches against English sides, but they have also spent the season playing the kind of disciplined, packed-in away football that turns ties into knockouts. Arsenal need something close to their best to settle this in 90 minutes. Anything short of that, and the tie goes deep.
Whoever wins this one will face the winner of Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain, who play their second leg in Munich on Wednesday, with the final in Budapest on May 30.
Cricket Updates
