Spain lead the World Cup market, but Yamal's hamstring keeps the door open
The World Cup kicks off on 11 June, and for once the team at the top of the betting does not feel like a settled argument. Spain are the shortest-priced side at around +475, but France sit right behind them at +500, with England, Brazil and Argentina all close enough to dream. To my eye this is the most open men's World Cup in years, and the 48-team format spread across the United States, Canada and Mexico only adds to the sense that the road to MetLife Stadium has more potholes than usual.
Spain are favourites for a reason, and for a worry
The case for Spain is simple. They are the reigning European champions, they keep the ball better than anyone, and at their best they suffocate teams without ever looking rushed. The worry has a name: Lamine Yamal. His torn hamstring, which ended his club season early, was enough to push the bookmakers to briefly make Spain and France joint favourites. Spain have since edged back in front as word spread that Yamal could feature at some stage of the tournament, but "could feature at some stage" is a long way from "fit and flying from the group games." A Spain side missing its most dangerous attacker for even half the tournament is still very good. It is not the same team that has people talking about a dynasty.
The chasers all have a real argument
France are the world's top-ranked nation and probably have the deepest talent pool of anyone here, even if recent form has not been convincing. England, third in the market at around +650, finally look like they have a coach willing to make ruthless calls, and the squad depth is genuinely frightening. The question with England is the one it always is: can they handle the weight of expectation when the games get tight?
Then there is the romance of the holders. Argentina arrive as defending champions with much of the 2022 core still standing, chasing something nobody has managed since Brazil in 1962: back-to-back titles. I would not bet my house on it, but I would not laugh at anyone who did. Brazil, meanwhile, are a fascinating case under Carlo Ancelotti. The pace and flair are obvious, but a clutch of injuries to key men has blunted what looked like a frightening attack a few months ago.
My take
If you forced a pick out of me today, I would lean Spain, but with far less conviction than the favourites tag suggests. Their ceiling is the highest in the field and their style travels to any opponent. The catch is that so much of that ceiling depends on a teenager's hamstring, and tournaments have a way of punishing teams who are one injury away from ordinary. France are the side I would back to be there at the end if Spain wobble, and I would keep a quiet eye on Argentina, because experience and a settled spine count for a lot over a long summer. What I am most sure of is that nobody should be writing names on the trophy yet. This one feels genuinely up for grabs, and that is exactly how a World Cup should feel ten days out.
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