PSG, Arsenal, Atletico, Bayern: ranking their chances of reaching Budapest after the Champions League first legs
The Champions League semi-final first legs gave us a nine-goal classic at the Parc des Princes and a defensive 1-1 draw at the Metropolitano. Different stories, same outcome: nothing has been decided. PSG carry a one-goal lead to Munich, and Arsenal and Atletico head to north London level on aggregate. Five days from the second legs, here is how the four ties read.
PSG: still the side most likely to be in Budapest
Luis Enrique's Champions League holders came through Tuesday night with a 5-4 win that broke records. The first European semi-final to see both teams score four or more, the joint-highest scoring semi in European Cup or Champions League history, and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia getting two of the goals. The headline number on the night was nine. The number that actually matters now is one. PSG's one-goal advantage is small, but they take it to a Bayern side that conceded five at the back four days earlier.
The Munich return on Wednesday will hurt them in two specific ways. Their defensive line was exposed repeatedly in the first leg, and Bayern at home, on home soil with their crowd, are a different proposition to the side that turned up in Paris. Still, PSG do not need to win at the Allianz. They need not to be beaten by two. That gives Luis Enrique room to play more conservatively if it stays close past the hour mark, and the holders' back four looks far more comfortable when given a lead to protect than when chasing the game.
If you had to bet on one team now, it would be Paris.
Arsenal: the home tie suits them
Atletico's stock-in-trade is making the second leg uncomfortable. Diego Simeone's side got a 1-1 in Madrid, swapped penalties with Arsenal (Viktor Gyokeres for the visitors, Julian Alvarez for the hosts), and watched VAR take away a second Arsenal penalty after Eberechi Eze went down in the box late in the second half. The pre-match worry that Arsenal would not be able to break Atletico's low block was answered with an away goal but not a win. They will take it.
The Emirates return on May 5 leaves Mikel Arteta's side as slight favourites. Atletico do most of their damage when the opposition is forced to come at them, and Arsenal at home, with the kind of attacking core they have built around Bukayo Saka, Eze and Gyokeres, do not need to chase the game. They can sit on possession at 0-0 and force Atletico to step out of their shape. That is the version of Arsenal that has been most convincing this season.
Arsenal aren't certainties, but they are the second name I would write into the final.
Atletico: travelling well, with a familiar template
The case for Atletico isn't that they were the better team in Madrid. They weren't. It is that they are set up exactly for a one-off in London. Simeone's Atletico, on the road in Europe, are pragmatists. They sit deep, take their chance on a counter, and force the home side to find a way through. The 1-1 in Madrid was, in its own way, a Simeone result. Arsenal generated chances but did not turn pressure into goals other than the penalty.
Where the case wobbles is the second 45. Simeone's sides can lean on the rope in the closing stages of big European games, and the longer the Emirates tie stays at 0-0 or 0-1, the more nervy that pattern reads. Their best path to Budapest is a quick away goal that flips Arsenal onto a chase.
Possible. Not probable.
Bayern: the steepest hill of the four
Bayern aren't out, but they need to win in Munich after losing the first leg, and three goals on the road for PSG is a high bar even for a defense that just leaked four. Vincent Kompany's side have the personnel. Harry Kane scored from the penalty spot in Paris, Michael Olise was a constant problem before half-time, and Luis Diaz made it 5-4 with 22 minutes left. The questions are at the other end. Achraf Hakimi, Joao Neves and the PSG midfield picked Bayern apart in transition four days ago.
If Bayern lose the second leg early, say an away goal in the first 20 minutes, the tie is more or less gone. They cannot afford that. The most realistic optimistic case is something close to 2-1 to Bayern at home that drags the tie to extra time, and from there the holders' edge in moments tends to come through. The case for Bayern in Budapest isn't dead. It's just on the floor and out of breath.
The order, then
If you had to fill in the final at the Puskas Arena on May 30 right now, it reads PSG against Arsenal. The plausible upsets are Atletico catching Arsenal flat at the Emirates, Bayern winning a home leg by two clear goals, or PSG having one of the bad nights they sometimes do where the back four falls apart with no warning. None of those are the most likely outcome on the form so far. The most likely is the duller read of the brackets: the holders, plus the team coming back from a level draw with home advantage in hand, both reaching the final.
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