Leipzig host Union Berlin with a Champions League return firmly in their own hands
RB Leipzig open Bundesliga matchday 31 on Friday night against Union Berlin at the Red Bull Arena. It is the kind of fixture Ole Werner's side need to win in their sleep if they want to be back in the Champions League next season. A home game against a club sitting 11th, under an interim manager, and without a win in four.
Leipzig come into the night in form. Werner's team have won four in a row and six of their last seven, with a 3-1 away win at Eintracht Frankfurt last weekend the most recent piece of evidence. That run has taken them to third in the table, five points clear of fifth-placed Hoffenheim with four matches to play.
A straightforward sum
European qualification is already done. Leipzig confirmed a continental place for next season after the Frankfurt win. The question now is which competition. Third place sends them straight back into the Champions League league phase, and with three of their last four remaining games at home, their schedule is kinder than Hoffenheim's.
Losing this one would not end the chase, but it would invite real pressure. Leipzig's home record under Werner is strong, with a win rate of around 67 percent at the Red Bull Arena this season, and the numbers against Union are flattering on top of that.
Union’s interim project
Union Berlin are in a very different place. Marie-Louise Eta was appointed interim head coach on April 11, the first woman to take charge of a Bundesliga men's game, and her first assignment has been a salvage job in the final weeks. Union are 11th with 32 points, winless in four, and have been outscored 10-3 in that run.
They are not in relegation trouble, but the shape of their season has long gone. Union’s 2026 calendar year has produced three wins in 15 league games, a record the club would rather not look at. Eta’s focus is on building some identity back into the group before the summer.
What to watch
Leipzig’s in-form front line is the obvious thing. The team has scored 15 goals across its last seven matches and has settled on a shape Werner seems to trust. How Union defend transitions in the wide areas will decide whether this is a comfortable evening or a nervous one.
The betting market has Leipzig at around 1.36 to win, which is about as short as a Bundesliga home favourite gets this season. It is that kind of fixture. Win it, and Leipzig’s Champions League return goes from likely to almost done. Anything else, and the closing four matchdays get interesting again.
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