Atletico vs Arsenal is the kinder semi-final on paper and a far tougher one than the October rematch suggests
Arsenal travel to the Riyadh Air Metropolitano on Wednesday April 29 for the first leg of their Champions League semi-final against Atletico Madrid, with the return at the Emirates a week later on May 5. The winner goes to Budapest on May 30. This is Arsenal's first back-to-back semi-final in the club's history, and it is Atletico's first in nine years, and it is the sort of tie that would have been a final in several other seasons.
It is a strange fixture because the two sides met in the league phase in October and Arsenal won it 4-0 at the Emirates. That was the night Viktor Gyokeres finally ended a goal drought with a quick double inside three minutes, and Atletico looked nothing like the side that has arrived at this stage of the competition. Six months later, on the road, and with a final at stake, the rematch will feel very different.
Arsenal arrive as the only unbeaten team
Arsenal have not lost a Champions League game this season. Eight league-phase wins from eight, a 23-4 goal difference in that stage, a routine passage through the knockout rounds and a quarter-final second leg against Sporting at the Emirates that was turned into a 0-0 holding pattern because they did not need anything else. That is a steadier kind of European campaign than the last one, when Arsenal were knocked out 3-1 on aggregate by PSG in the semi-finals. Mikel Arteta's side have cut out the late mistakes, kept a stable back four, and found a method that does not require their forwards to be on fire every week.
The drop is on the title side of Arteta's season. The side that has lost one Premier League game in the last three months has also drawn the type of game that decides championships. Arsenal sit three points clear of Manchester City after the 2-1 loss at the Etihad at the weekend, and the Champions League is now the clearer path to a trophy this year. That gives Wednesday the weight of an almost-final, and Arteta is not going to rotate the way he did in the quarter-final second leg.
Atletico come in through the harder route
Atletico finished the league phase on nine points, won a play-off round, beat Tottenham 7-5 on aggregate in the round of sixteen and then saw off Barcelona 3-2 on aggregate in the quarter-finals. Julian Alvarez has been the story for Diego Simeone through the spring, nine goals in the Champions League this season and a different sort of leading line to the one Atletico were built around five years ago. That is a club-record mark for a single Champions League campaign. Antoine Griezmann is still on the pitch for the big games, Marcos Llorente is still running at people from deep, and the defensive shape around Jose Gimenez is still the thing that wins ties for them at home.
The Metropolitano is where Atletico prefer to get an early lead and let the other side chase a goal. The Barcelona tie was a reminder of the pattern. Atletico won the away leg 2-0, then held on to a 3-2 aggregate after losing the home leg 2-1. If Arsenal get drawn into that shape on Wednesday, this tie is decided at the Emirates from an aggregate deficit.
Where the tie turns
Arsenal's defence against Atletico's counter-attack is the headline matchup. Gabriel and William Saliba have been the core of the best defensive record in Europe this season, and their pace has been the thing that makes Arteta's aggressive full-back shape workable. Alvarez on the break, with Llorente ahead of him and Giuliano Simeone running the wider channels, is exactly the kind of attack that has a history of getting behind high lines. Arsenal will not be able to press the Metropolitano the way they pressed Atletico at the Emirates in October.
Bukayo Saka up against Atletico's left-back is the other matchup that will define the first half. Saka was quiet in October, in part because Atletico set up narrow through the middle and trusted the full-back to hold his wider channel. He has since had two months of the best form of his season. That is the one-on-one that has the clearest swing effect on the tie.
Arsenal are slight favourites with the bookmakers and the model-based previews, which is already a very different starting point from the October league-phase meeting. A 1-1 first leg would be a fair outcome. Atletico will be happy to trade an away goal for an early lead, and Arsenal will accept a draw on the road with two of Saka, Martinelli and Gyokeres on the bench for the return. Either way, it is a tie that feels closer than the October result suggested it would.
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