Can Argentina become the first side to retain the World Cup since 1962?

Argentina walk into the 2026 World Cup as champions, with Lionel Messi back for what everyone accepts is a last World Cup, and one question trailing them around North America: can they actually keep the thing they won in Qatar? Defending the trophy sounds like the natural next step for a great side. History says it is closer to impossible.

No one has done this since 1962

The last team to win back-to-back World Cups was Brazil, in 1962. That is the whole of the recent precedent. Before that you go back to Italy in 1934 and 1938, and after it, more than sixty years of holders falling short. The trophy has changed hands at every tournament for six decades.

It is not as if the champions have simply been edged out in tight finals, either. Three of the last four defending champions went out in the group stage, beaten before the knockouts even began. Whatever it is about carrying the holders’ tag, the target on your back, the toll of a long cycle, the comedown after the climb, it has flattened some serious teams. Argentina know the number they are chasing, and they know how unforgiving it has been.

Why this Argentina might be different

Here is the case for them. Scaloni has not torn anything up. Seventeen of the twenty-six who lifted the trophy in Qatar are back, which is a striking amount of continuity for a four-year gap, and it means the spine of the team has played knockout World Cup football together and come through it.

The supporting cast has grown into its prime rather than aged out of it. Lautaro Martinez, Julian Alvarez, Enzo Fernandez and Alexis Mac Allister were the future in 2022 and are the present now, all settled at big clubs and all hardened by that run to the title. Add the winning habit this group has built, and you have a side that does not panic when a tournament gets tight. That, more than any single name, is usually what separates the teams who go deep from the ones who go home.

It still runs through Messi

And that is also the risk. Argentina are still, unmistakably, Messi’s team, and Messi turns thirty-nine this month. He sat out one of the warm-ups with a minor knock that Scaloni waved away, and the coach has insisted his captain is fine, but you cannot build a month-long campaign in North American summer heat around a player that age and pretend fitness is not a live question.

When he plays, Argentina look like Argentina. The doubt is how often, and how sharp, across seven possible games in five weeks. If Scaloni can manage his minutes and have him fresh for the knockouts, the ceiling is as high as anyone’s in the tournament. If the knock lingers or a new one arrives, the whole plan wobbles. For a side this reliant on one man, that is a lot resting on Messi staying on his feet.

The draw gives them a runway

The early schedule, at least, is kind. Argentina open against Algeria and share Group J with Austria and Jordan, a group they ought to be clearing without emptying the tank. That matters for a squad that wants Messi peaking in July, not June. The real examination comes later, when the European heavyweights and a wounded but still dangerous Brazil are waiting in the knockouts.

So, can they?

My honest answer is that I would not call them favourites, and I would not bet against them either. The weight of sixty-four years of failed defences is real, and no amount of continuity makes a team immune to one bad afternoon in a knockout. But Argentina have the squad, the temperament and, in Messi’s farewell, a motivation that is hard to fake. If he stays upright, this is exactly the kind of side that tends to find a way. Retaining the World Cup is the hardest trick in the sport. Argentina look like the best-placed team to try it in a very long time.

More World Cup views and analysis